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Standard Chartered Bank has raised its Vietnam GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 7.5% from the previous 6.7%. (Photo: dautuchungkhoan.vn)
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While the bank lowers its inflation forecast for this year to 3.3% from 4.2%, it expects an acceleration in Q4 to 5.0% from 3.3% in Q3. Inflation has been largely under control; price pressures may increase in the rest of 2022 and in 2023. In addition to supply-side factors, demand-side factors might kick in more strongly.
“We maintain our average 2023 inflation forecast at 5.5%, expecting it to rise throughout next year, reaching around 6% late next year. We see inflation as a threat to Vietnam’s continued recovery,” said Tim Leelahaphan, Economist for Thailand and Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank.
Standard Chartered’s economists expect the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to continue tightening monetary policy and forecast a 50bps hike in the refinancing rate each in Q4-2022 and Q1-2023, taking the rate to 6%, following a 100bps hike to 5% on September 22.
“We see a risk of SBV raising rates more than we expect if inflation accelerates and the Vietnamese dong weakening more than we forecast as the Fed maintains a relatively hawkish stance. We expect SBV to stay vigilant against inflation and financial instability besides helping businesses recover from the COVID-19 impact,” said Leelahaphan.
According to the UK-based lender, the VND is likely to face several headwinds in the short term – a hawkish Fed, strong USD, higher commodity prices and slowing external demand. The VND continues to significantly outperform its peers across EM Asia, despite recent depreciation.
Standard Chartered Bank expects the pace of VND depreciation to slow in the coming months. USD-VND’s correlation with USD-CNY remains extremely strong. As such, a peak in USD-CNY will likely coincide with the peak in USD-VND. The bank forecasts USD-VND at 24,200 by end-2022 and at 24,000 for end-Q1-2023 and declining towards 23,400 by end-2023.
Vietnam attends int’l food trade show in Paris
Vietnamese agricultural goods, such as honey, pepper, cashew nut, vegetables, rice and rice-made products, are on display at Sial Paris 2022, an international food trade show underway in Paris, France from October 15 to 19, reported Vietnam News Agency.
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| Vietnamese agricultural goods are on display at Sial Paris 2022, an international food trade show underway in Paris, France from October 15 to 19. (Photo: VNA) |
The trade fair is being attended by more than 80 Vietnamese exhibitors, the largest number so far.
In his remarks at the launch of the Vietnam's section, Vietnamese Ambassador to France Dinh Toan Thang expressed his appreciation for Vietnamese food producers joining this year, helping promote Vietnamese food products globally.
With the help of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), meetings and discussions between Vietnamese and French businesses will open new opportunities for both sides, he said.
Vu Ba Phu, Director of the Vietnam Trade Promotion Agency, said this year, Vietnamese exhibitors brought to the trade show more processed products rather than raw ones. They have focused more on product quality, packaging and branding, he explained.
Held annually, Sial Paris is one of the world’s largest and most prestigious trade fairs in food and beverage. This year, the 25-ha event attracts about 7,000 exhibitors from 119 countries all around the world which are putting some 400,000 products on display.
It is expected to welcome around 310,000 visitors from more than 200,000 countries.
Tra fish exports to ASEAN growing strongly
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| Workers process tra fish for export. (Photo: VNA) |
Tra fish exports to member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have been rising sharply, and this market is forecast to surpass the European Union in terms of catfish imports from Vietnam in the near future, the Cong Thuong (Industry & Trade) newspaper reported.
Tra fish exports to ASEAN countries were estimated at over 152 million USD in the first nine months of 2022, accounting for nearly 8% of the total, according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP).
Thanks to strong and continuous growth in recent years, shipments to ASEAN currently approximate those to the EU.
The Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore are the biggest ASEAN importers of Vietnamese tra fish at present.Exports to the
Philippines increased five-fold in September, contributing to a jump of 92% to exceed 25 million USD in nine months – equivalent to 1.3% of total tra fish exports.
Thailand makes up 3.6% of Vietnam’s total tra fish exports. By the end of the third quarter, the revenue topped 70 million USD, surging 81% year on year. It shot up 165% in September alone.
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| Photo: congthuong.vn |
Meanwhile, Singapore imported over 28 million USD worth of tra fish from Vietnam between January and September, up 56% from a year earlier. The shipments rose by over three times in September.
To Malaysia, the nine-month turnover exceeded 26 million USD, up 114%. It also rocketed 138% in September.
Other ASEAN members like Cambodia, Indonesia, and Laos are also increasing imports of Vietnamese tra fish, with exports to those destinations growing by three- to 23-fold from the same period last year.
Soaring transportation costs so far this year is a disadvantage for the tra fish sector since this commodity doesn’t have as high prices as other fishery products. Therefore, the markets in close proximity like ASEAN countries are a better pathway for Vietnamese exports.
Vietnamese composer's works performed at int’l guitar competition in Berlin
Works by Vietnamese professor and guitarist Dang Ngoc Long were among the required performances at the International Guitar Competition and Festival Berlin 2022 which wrapped up on October 15.
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| Vietnamese professor and guitarist Dang Ngoc Long performs at the finale of the International Guitar Competition and Festival Berlin 2022. (Photo: VNA) |
Long has acted as the biennial event’s art director for nine times.
This year’s event saw the competition among fifteen contestants who are students from professional music schools from 11 countries, namely Italy, Germany, Spain, Paraguay, Poland, Austria, the Netherlands, Luxemburg, Chile, the Republic of Korea and
France.They all were required to perform Long’s classical piece of music Faust–Sonata, inspired by a tragedy by Germany’s Johann Wolfgang Goethe, during the first and second qualifying rounds of the competition.
The finale featured guitar performances of several Vietnamese folk songs, such as “Nui rung Tay Nguyen” (Central Highlands’ mountains and forests), “Nguoi o dung ve” (My darling, please don’t leave) and “Di cay” (Paddy transplanting), by Prof. Dao Ngoc Long and two winners in 2014 and 2020 from Denmark and Belarus.
Talking to Vietnam News Agency after the contest, Long, Director of the music school Berlin Gesundbrunnen, unveiled his intention to bring the competition to Vietnam on the occasion of its 20th anniversary./.