ASEAN Plus Three forecast to grow 4.5% in 2024

The 2024 growth forecast for the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) region has been kept at 4.5%. (Source: AMRO)

According to the office, the region’s strong domestic demand amid moderating inflation and continuing improvement in trade will propel growth, despite uncertainties surrounding the global outlook.

The APT, which consists of ten ASEAN member states and the bloc’s partner countries namely China, Japan and the Republic of Korea, has also projected to end 2023 with a full-year growth of 4.4%, slightly higher than last October’s projection of 4.3%.

“The recovery in the global tech cycle is starting to be felt in the region’s export performance, especially for electronics,” said AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor as quoted in its January 18 press release. “But non-tech exports are lagging behind in terms of recovery, which is why recent manufacturing sentiment surveys are relatively mixed.”

AMRO said price pressures continue to recede across member economies, mirroring the trend in global commodity prices. Inflation in the region, excluding Laos and Myanmar, is forecast to moderate to 2.6% this year from an estimated 2.8% for 2023. However, upside risks to inflation remain salient, and core inflation continues to be high in many economies.

Regarding regional nations, AMRO has predicted Vietnam to grow 6% this year. Meanwhile, the rates forecast for the Philippines, Cambodia, and Indonesia are 6.3%, 6.2%, and 5.2%, respectively./.