Boost for Vietnam's economic growth in third quarter
Friday, 23/08/2024 11:33 (GMT+7)
Reports presented at the regular Government meeting for July 2024, held in the first week of August, highlighted positive economic and social outcomes, particularly the robust growth across all three sectors: agriculture, industry and services. During the meeting, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh set a GDP growth target for the third quarter of this year at 6.5%-7.0%.
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| Multiple international financial institutions predict that Vietnam will experience the strongest economic growth in Southeast Asia. (Source: kinhtemoitruong.vn) |
Given the momentum from the first half of 2024, recent reports from United Overseas Bank (UOB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and Standard Chartered all maintained their growth forecasts at 6% for the year 2024.
Meanwhile, in its recently published ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook for July, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) revised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam upward to 6.3% from 6% in its April report. AMRO also maintained a 6.5% growth forecast for 2025.
Commenting on Vietnam's growth target, HSBC’s July report noted that Vietnam’s trade continues to recover, with exports in July up 19.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, which HSBC previously forecasted at only around 11.7%. Newly registered manufacturing FDI increased by 36% year-on-year, and retail sales continued to grow steadily at 8.7% year-on-year. Overall, this is likely to help Vietnam achieve its 2024 growth target of 6.5%, which would also make it the fastest-growing economy in ASEAN.
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| HSBC: Vietnam remains an attractive destination for FDI inflows. (Source: tapchicongthuong.vn) |
According to Vu Binh Minh, Director of Bond and Interest Rate Products at HSBC Vietnam, HSBC’s research team forecasts that Vietnam’s GDP growth could reach 6.2% in the third quarter, potentially bringing the full-year growth rate to 6.5%. Vietnam has shown a fairly stable and sustainable recovery.
HSBC’s banking experts also noted that inflation data indicates an annual inflation rate of around 4.4%, relatively close to the government’s target of 4.5%. This is driven by various external factors, including global commodity price pressures and market dynamics. In this context, it is crucial for government agencies to implement appropriate policies to ensure inflation remains well-controlled this year./.
Compiled by BTA