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| Photo for illustration (Source: Internet) |
According to Mr. Michael Kokalari - CFA, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Market Research Department of VinaCapital, Vietnam's GDP growth is forecast to slow down, from 8% in 2022 to 4.7% in 2023. The reason is the decline in exports and production.
Specifically, Vietnam's exports in the first nine months of 2023 decreased by nearly 10% from the same period. Exports to the US, Vietnam's largest export market, decreased by nearly 20% because US companies ordered too many products from Asia in 2022. However, VinaCapital assesses that this trend is about to end, creating momentum for Vietnam's economic recovery next year.
Additionally, international tourist arrivals have so far recovered to nearly 70% compared to the pre-COVID-19 pandemic level. This supports Vietnam's GDP growth in 2023. Because foreign tourism previously contributed about 10% of GDP, it contributed almost nothing to the Vietnamese economy last year.
By 2024, VinaCapital expects Vietnam's GDP growth to recover to 6.5% thanks to export recovery. This will be accompanied by a recovery in Vietnam's manufacturing output from no growth in 2023 to 8-9% growth in 2024, compared to the industry's long-term average growth of 12% before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Investing, a financial news, cited HSBC bank's positive forecast on Vietnam's economic growth and experts’ comments that the recovery due to improved global demand contributes to promoting exports, along with increased domestic spending, while emphasizing that total retail sales and consumer services revenue grow significantly by 9.7%.
"Even when global exports decline, Vietnam's exports still gain market share, which shows that Vietnam's economy is competitive. We still see foreign investment flowing into Vietnam and expanding export capacity. That allows Vietnam to recover faster than other economies in the region," said Mr. Frederic Neumann, Head of HSBC’s Asian Economics Research.
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| Photo for illustration (Source: Internet) |
According to the latest economic report on Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank has lowered Vietnam's GDP growth forecast in 2023 from 5.4% to 5%. This reflects economic data so far this year being below expectations and a gloomier global economic outlook.
Standard Chartered Bank still maintains Vietnam's GDP growth forecast in 2024 at 6.7% (6.2% in the first half of the year and 6.9% in the second half of the year). These numbers are equal to or exceed the target set by the Prime Minister for GDP growth in 2024 of about 6 - 6.5%.
The bank said that although macroeconomic indicators have temporarily improved, trade has not seen clear signs of production recovery. However, signs of domestic recovery continue and are likely to further strengthen thanks to strong retail sales.
"The medium-term economic outlook remains promising thanks to Vietnam's economic openness and stability. To attract FDI, Vietnam needs to restore rapid GDP growth and develop infrastructure," said Mr. Tim Leelahaphan, Economist covering Thailand and Vietnam at Standard Chartered Bank./.