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| Photo for illustration (Source: laodong.vn) |
With positive results on Vietnam's socio-economic situation in April and the first four months of the year, many international organizations are optimistic about Vietnam's economic prospects for the whole year 2024.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Vietnam will rank 20th in the world with a growth rate of 5.8% in 2024. However, in the medium term, the IMF expects Vietnam to have many opportunities from digitalization, green transformation and forecast economic growth of 6.5%.
The World Bank forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 of 5.5% and continues to be in the top group in the world in terms of economic growth rate. By 2025, the growth rate of the country may reach 6%.
Exports are expected to grow by 3.5% compared to 2023, while domestic consumption and private investment are also on the rise. Inflation is forecast to increase slightly to 3.5% in 2024.
According to Fitch Ratings, Vietnam's domestic financial and monetary policies have greatly supported the economy. Accordingly, Vietnam's economic growth is forecast to reach 6.3% in 2024 and 7.0% in 2025.
Standard Chartered Bank forecasts that Vietnam's GDP will increase by 6%, lower than the 6.7% previously given. UOB Bank forecasts Vietnam's economic growth in 2024 to reach 6%.
In addition, ADB forecasts that Vietnam's economy will grow by 6% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025.
Quarterly economic update reports from international organizations emphasize the rapid recovery of Vietnam's exports. According to S&P Global, Vietnam's purchasing managers index (PMI) in April reached 50.3 points, showing high new orders and output. This signal also clearly reflects in the 4-month export figures, which reached over 123 billion USD, up 15% over the same period.
Trade advantages are also strengthening Vietnam's position as a destination for foreign investors. Total FDI capital of Vietnam in the first 4 months of the year reached nearly 9.3 billion USD, an increase of 4.5% over the same period, of which realized FDI capital increased by 7.4%, the highest rate in the same period over the past five years, showing that investors’ confidence in Vietnam is increasing.
"The survey from our business confidence index report in the first quarter shows that sentiment will change positively in the upcoming quarter for the economy. The level of optimism increased 6 points compared to the previous quarter to 45%, while the level of pessimism was only 10%. More than half of the surveyed businesses predicted that the number of orders and revenue would increase higher than in the second quarter of this year," said Mr. Dominik Meichle, Chairman of the European Business Association in Vietnam.
The reports also emphasize the Government's economic management in a flexible and proactive manner, focusing on supporting growth. Notably, fiscal policy and public investment promotion are working effectively, strengthening the recovery.
Mr. Shantanu Chakraborty, Country Director of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Vietnam, said: "The main driving force to ensure growth of 6% or more this year will be public investment. The public investment promotion will increase the quality of infrastructure projects of over 27 billion USD, which will be disbursed this year. We highly appreciate the Government's determination to disburse over 95% of the capital plan, strongly promoting capital allocation and disbursement right from the beginning of the year."
However, according to international organizations, in the context of external risks of geopolitical instability, inflation and global exchange rate fluctuations, Vietnam needs to ensure the stability of the banking sector, which enhances the management of potential risks related to bad debt./.