This conclusion was included in the economic analysis released by Fitch Solutions Macro Research on January 2nd.
According to Fitch, Vietnam’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 7.3 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2018, up from 6.8 percent in the third quarter. This brought full-year growth for 2018 to 7.1 percent, marking the fastest pace of expansion in 11 years.
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Fitch Solutions said the economy was buoyed by the export-oriented manufacturing sector, which benefitted from strong foreign direct investment (FDI) and global growth.
“Although we believe that Vietnam’s manufacturing sector and economy will continue to outperform the region over the coming quarters, growth is likely to face headwinds stemming from rising global trade disruptions and tightening financial conditions, which will negatively impact global economic growth and risk sentiment,” Fitch noted in the report.
The report predicted Vietnam’s real GDP growth will rise to 6.5 percent in 2019, in line with the wider trend of slowing global growth.
Vietnam’s high and growing degree of economic openness will likely see the slowing of global growth momentum act as a drag on the country’s export performance in 2019, following export growth of 13.8 percent in 2018. Exports accounted for approximately 103 percent of GDP in 2018, up from just around 84 percent in 2013.
The research firm also expected the manufacturing sector to remain a key economic driver and to outperform the region. Vietnam has grown to become a manufacturing powerhouse – particularly in electronics – due to its relatively cheap and large labour force, geographical advantages, attractive tax breaks, stable political environment and open-door trade policies.
“The opening up of the Vietnamese economy also came at an opportune time, as China had begun to shift away from lower-end and export-oriented manufacturing, to focus more on the domestic economy, allowing the former to gain market share,” Fitch added./.